2020: The Year of Comebacks

“The future is only the past again, entered through another gate.” – Arthur Wing Pinero

Our expectations for India :

In 2019, the political power moved from India to “Bharat” as we saw in the national elections as well as the resurgence of local parties in the state elections. We expect the same kind of start of a movement in economic power to “Bharat” in 2020. This year we should see:

1. Recovery of rural economy

2. Government spending focused on rural

3. Return of inflation

4. Turnaround of the corporate operating leverage cycle

5. Market indices hitting new high

6. End of rate cut cycle

Our expectations for the Global economy

1. US election – a non-event

2. Global economy growth rate bottoming out

3. Upcycle in all commodities (metals, crude oil, agri & gold)

4. Upward revision of global inflation

5. Outperformance of emerging market equities

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